09:20 - 11:00
Room: Club B
Chair/s:
Julia Ebner
Discussant - Yu Mei

Marco Bocchese - Guns and Governance: Legal and Political Dimensions of Arms Trafficking in Central Africa
Enze Han, Haozhe Zhang - The Making of Us: The “Global South” and China’s Pursuit of Global Leadership
Julia Ebner, Harvey Whitehouse - When Despots Become Deadly: Can the language of authoritarian leaders be used to assess the risk of state-led mass violence?
Haozhe Zhang - Honey Tastes Bitter: When China's Development Projects Overseas Backfire on Its Political Influence
Alex Chienwu Hsueh - European States’ Hedging Behavior amid the Strategic Competition between the United States and China, 2005-2024
Yu Mei - Deterrence Through Reassurance
Submission 178
When Despots Become Deadly: Can the Language of Authoritarian Leaders Be Used to Assess the Risk of State-Led Mass Violence?
Panel.1-S-3
Presented by: Julia Ebner, Harvey Whitehouse
Julia Ebner 1, 2Harvey Whitehouse 1, 2
1 Centre for the Study of Social Cohesion, University of Oxford
2 Calleva Centre for Evolution and Human Science, University of Oxford
State-led mass violence against civilian populations remains a pressing global threat, yet the international community is often caught off guard when such events occur. Dominant structural and strategic explanations overlook key psychological factors contributing to leaders’ violent decisions. Drawing on theories and methods from political psychology, cognitive anthropology, and terrorism risk assessment, this study introduces a novel framework linking psychological traits detectable in leaders’ language to patterns of mass violence. We compiled a database of over 700,000 words from twenty authoritarian leaders of the past 120 years. Combining expert assessments with natural language processing, we examined associations between psycholinguistic clusters and levels of lethality. Our pre-registered analysis identified distinct psycholinguistic profiles, each linked to different levels of lethality. These findings provide initial evidence that linguistic indicators of leader psychology can help explain variations in state-led violence. Our theoretically-grounded framework may contribute to the refinement of early-warning and risk assessment systems.