Electoral Change in Britain: A Consideration Set Approach
P13-S314-5
Presented by: Marco Steenbergen
As electoral volatility is on the rise in many countries, a key question of comparative research is how to understand this phenomenon. Some scholars argue that we are observing a pattern of dealignment (e.g., Garzia et al. 2022). Others argue that we are are in the middle of a process of realignment.(e.g., Bornschier et al. 2024). Much of the evidence to date stems from an analysis of vote choice. We broaden the perspective by focusing on electoral consideration sets. From a consideration set perspective, final vote choices are only the final stage in a decision chain that voters undertake. An important preceding stage concerns the parties that voters seriously consider as contenders of their voter. From this perspective, the question becomes how dealignment and realignment affect consideration set size and composition. Under dealignment, we would expect large, heterogeneous consideration sets that display little internal structure and instability throughout a campaign. Under realignment, the consideration sets should be smaller, structured, and more stable in the short term. We test these hypotheses using data from the online panel of the British election study. This panel allows us to study short-term dynamics within individuals, as well as longer term trends across individuals. In this way, the paper contributes to our understanding of electoral dynamics.
Keywords: dealignment; realignment; Britain; consideration sets