Correcting Misperceptions: The Impact of Coalition Performance Information on Citizen Attitudes and Voting Behavior
P12-S298-3
Presented by: Theres Matthieß
Previous research has indicated that (perceived) government performance significantly influences citizens' voting behavior. However, when evaluating coalition governments, citizens often underestimate coalition pledge fulfillment, perceiving it more negatively than scientific findings suggest. This misperception becomes problematic when electoral decisions are based on these biased or inaccurate information. Addressing this issue, our study examines whether providing citizens with scientific information about actual coalition pledge fulfillment impacts their political attitudes and voting intentions. We hypothesize that correcting these misperceptions increases political trust and the likelihood of voting for incumbent parties while reducing populist attitudes and support for populist parties. Moreover, we anticipate that when misperceptions are addressed, citizens exhibit greater tolerance for non-fulfilled pledges. To test these hypotheses, we examine the case of Germany's "Traffic Light Coalition" (2021–2025), which, despite an effective track record documented by scientific studies, struggled with a poor public image and collapsed before the regular end of term. Using a vignette experiment with graphic information conducted shortly before and after the upcoming elections in February, we assess how exposure to factual information about coalition performance influences voter behavior and perceptions. The findings of this study underscore the critical role of information in fostering informed electoral decisions, particularly in an era increasingly characterized by misinformation and the growing appeal of populist and extremist narratives.
Keywords: information; government performance; voting; experiment