11:20 - 13:00
P12-S297
Room: -1.A.07
Chair/s:
Nikitas Konstantinidis
Discussant/s:
Matthias Haslberger
Local Economic Outcomes of Morales’ Legacy in Bolivia
P12-S297-3
Presented by: Sina Smid
Sina Smid
Uppsala University
Left-wing governments are frequently associated with income redistribution through increased taxes and social spending. Yet, the evidence regarding the effect of partisanship on local redistribution in developing countries is mixed. In this paper, I explore the impact of Bolivian mayors representing Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS), headed by Evo Morales as president of Bolivia from 2006 to 2019. I test whether municipalities with MAS-affiliated mayors exhibit higher reductions in inequality and poverty than municipalities with opposition mayors. I anticipate that MAS mayors fulfil voters’ demands for redistributive policies in congruence with the party’s ideology and thereby achieve higher reductions in inequality during their governing period than the opposition, and I explore corruption as a potential intervening mechanism. The analysis relies on administrative data and satellite nighttime light data as proxies for economic development and inequality. I use a close election regression discontinuity design for three municipal elections in Bolivia (2004, 2010, and 2015). Contrary to my expectation, I find that MAS-led municipalities show significant increases in inequality. Yet, in municipalities with higher irregularities, poverty reduced significantly. The analysis contributes to the literature on redistributive policies of local governments and their effects on poverty and inequality reduction at the local level in developing countries. The findings pose implications for local governance and responsiveness in developing countries.
Keywords: Inequality measurement, Local inequality, Poverty reduction, Left-wing politics, Redistribution

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