My home, my castle: The Housing Market and Voting Patterns in Spain
P12-S299-1
Presented by: Pablo Simón
The relationship between the housing market and political outcomes is attracting growing attention in the literature. This paper investigates the connection between changes in housing rents and prices and voting patterns for anti-establishment parties in Spain, using precinct-level data from General Elections. Given Spain’s high homeownership rate and the widespread view of property as a savings investment, we hypothesize that declines in housing values since the housing bubble have led individuals to feel poorer and vote against traditional parties. Conversely, rising housing values likely strengthen support for establishment parties, a phenomenon that reveals rural-urban variations in voting patterns. We also explore the role of the rental market in shaping voting behavior. Rising rents are expected to have divergent effects on support for left- and right-wing populist parties, depending on the distribution of housing market pressures and the potential economic gains for homeowners in touristic areas.
Keywords: housing market, voting ehaviour, rental prices, anti-establisment parties