11:20 - 13:00
P12-S294
Room: -1.A.04
Chair/s:
Diego Marino Fages
Discussant/s:
Joan Barceló
Why Do We Protest? For a Comprehensive Explanatory Multi-Level Model
P12-S294-1
Presented by: Abdelkarim Amengay
Ibrahim Khatib 1Abdelkarim Amengay 1, Mazen Hassan 2, Mark Tessler 3
1 Doha Institute for Graduate Studies
2 Cairo University
3 University of Michigan
While numerous studies have examined the reasons behind people’s decision to engage in protests, existing literature lacks a comprehensive model that consolidates previous findings and thoroughly investigates these causes. There is, thus, a need for experimental tools to establish conditional associations and build a case for causal inference in this area of research. Developing such a model could aid in predicting protests and support efforts to address grievances, potentially preventing violent conflicts. To address this gap, this project adopts an interdisciplinary approach, drawing from political science, psychology, sociology and conflict studies, to explore the factors that lead people to protest within authoritarian regimes. Specifically, it examines how contextual factors such as economic deprivation and political repression influence individuals' willingness to protest, and how individual factors like emotions (anger, frustration, fear) and rational calculations mediate this relationship. The proposed model positions contextual factors as the primary drivers, with individual factors acting as mediators rather than direct causes, while also considering moderators like identity, elite divisions, and belief in conspiracy theories. To empirically test this model, we utilize a large-scale survey experiment with a total sample size of 18,000 participants (3,000 per country) across six Arab countries: Morocco, Egypt, Tunisia, Iraq, Lebanon, and Jordan. This experimental design allows us to comprehensively investigate the variables and establish casual relationships between contextual factors and protest readiness., as proposed.
Keywords: Protests, MENA Region, Survey Experiment, Comprehensive Model

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