Psychological traits of authoritarian leaders have been extensively studied, yet the personality profiles of influential dissidents remain underexplored. This paper addresses two questions: (1) What distinguishes prominent dissidents from less impactful critics of authoritarian regimes? (2) How do external shocks reshape the profiles of repression targets?
Using a novel dataset on potential repression targets in Russia (2020–2024), I analyze censorship dossiers prepared for “foreign agent” designations, a soft repression tool curbing civil rights. Employing the Interactive Attention Network (IAN) model, I infer personality traits via the Five Factor Model (FFM) from photographs and apply survival analysis and comparative methods to assess repression dynamics.
Study I reveals that prominent dissidents exhibit greater conscientiousness (+27%, p = 0.002) and emotional stability (+22%, p = 0.016), traits linked to adaptive risk-taking and long-term planning. These traits increase repression likelihood by 22–25% and 16%, respectively. Study II highlights how Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine expanded its repressive capacity, lowering the threshold for targeting individuals. Post-invasion, repression shifted toward more agreeable (+76%, p < 0.001) and less open (-35%, p = 0.014) individuals, reflecting broader control mechanisms.
These findings illuminate how authoritarian regimes prioritize dissidents for repression and adapt their strategies following external shocks. By linking personality traits to political risk, this study contributes to understanding the psychological micro-foundations of authoritarian control.