09:30 - 11:10
P11-S289
Room: 1A.12
Chair/s:
Kento Ohara
Discussant/s:
Jon H. Fiva
Undermining Democracy: How Term-Limit Evasion Tactics Shape Electoral Integrity
P11-S289-2
Presented by: Hilal Sert
Hilal Sert 1, 2, Ian Batista 2, Anthony DeMattee 2, David Carroll 2
1 Georgia State University
2 The Carter Center
Presidential term-limit evasion (TLE) remains a significant driver of democratic backsliding and undermines electoral integrity, yet the differential impact of various TLE methods (constitutional court rulings, legislative changes, referenda) warrants further causal investigation. This article expands upon previous research by applying a synthetic difference-and-difference approach—an advanced causal inference method that combines insights from difference-in-differences and synthetic control techniques—to a larger and updated panel dataset covering 428 presidential terms across 67 African and Latin American countries (1988–2023). By leveraging this stronger causal identification strategy, we compare the effects of different TLE tactics on key electoral integrity measures, including electoral quality perception, Electoral Management Body autonomy, election-day irregularities, vote buying, intimidation, and voter registry accuracy. Our findings will confirm the disproportionate impact of specific TLE methods and verify whether constitutional court rulings are the most detrimental to electoral integrity. This study not only strengthens causal claims about TLE’s consequences on electoral integrity but also provides critical insights into the institutional pathways through which term-limit evasion erodes democratic norms.
Keywords: term limit evasion, electoral integrity

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