“Greenlash”: How Environmental Policies Fuel Rural Discontent – The Case of Nitrogen Surpluses in the Netherlands
P11-S279-1
Presented by: Diane Bolet
This paper examines how stringent environmental policies can exacerbate rural discontent in the face of decarbonisation. While much is known about how globalisation, trade shocks, and automation generate political backlash among rural communities, the political implications of the green transition—these rapid, government-driven policies that disproportionately impact carbon-intensive, often rural, communities—remain underexplored. We focus on the 2019 Dutch court ruling that mandated stringent environmental measures to address nitrogen surpluses near natural habitats, predominantly affecting agriculture in rural municipalities. Using comprehensive administrative data and panel survey data, we analyse the ruling’s impact on political backlash, measured through radical right support, political distrust, political inefficacy, and dissatisfaction with politicians. Our difference-in-differences analysis reveal that rural areas and individuals adversely affected by the ruling are more inclined to support radical right parties after the ruling, suggesting a greenlash. Our panel survey data explore the place-based economic, cultural and political grievances that drive this greenlash. By generating patterns of radical right support similar to those seen with globalisation, trade shocks, and automation, the green transition emerges as a new structural change with concerning political implications that exacerbate the urban-rural divide.
Keywords: Environmental policies, climate politics, radical right voting, urban-rural divide