Access to mobile payment platforms across Africa has boomed in recent years, offering financial services to hundreds of millions without conventional bank accounts. Mobile transactions were worth more than 600 billion USD in 2022 alone, presenting policymakers with a substantive new source of domestic revenue. Many African governments have now placed levies on mobile payment platforms to help fund public services, but these have triggered widespread backlash from citizens in ways that risk undermining tax morale and the broader welfare gains of mobile money. In this project I examine how policymakers might resolve this trade-off, using a) observational analysis from across the continent to study the impact of taxes on public opinion, and b) a conjoint policy choice experiment in Malawi to study the types of transaction tax able to garner public support.

In my experiment, which is currently in the field (Oct 2024), respondents are presented with hypothetical mobile money tax policies and asked which they would prefer. Each policy has five features, the levels of which are randomised. Drawing on existing literature and my own research, I focus on several features likely to be relevant: the tax rate, payment exemptions, earmarking of revenues, monitoring, and mode of collection. These highlight various aspects of taxation, like the direct cost imposed on citizens, concerns about government corruption, and the public services that taxpayers receive from the state in return for their taxes. I anticipate that partisanship, and perceptions of reciprocity (gains from taxation) will be important determinants of support.