Defining the Local: How Economic Shocks Influence Economic Concerns and Political Views
P10-S248-5
Presented by: Pedro Martín-Cadenas
Growing evidence suggests that deteriorating local economic conditions contribute to the rise of anti-establishment parties. However, current research does not yet fully understand the nuanced processes through which economic shocks lead to individual precarity, potentially translating into economic concerns and political grievances. We contend that `socio-spatial' factors critically influence individuals' awareness and concerns about the local economy, specifically through (a) spatial proximity (distance to an event) and (b) social proximity (diffusion through interpersonal networks). These factors constitute a reconceptualization of economic shocks as ‘layered,’ taking into account personal and geographical proximity to layoffs as well as the sectoral composition of the layoffs. Combining an original geocoded panel data survey in the UK with event data on economic shocks, we investigate individual-level responses to layoffs in terms of labor market perceptions and other social and political preferences. Our results show that local economic shocks robustly predict job market risk perceptions. These effects are stronger when the layoffs occur within the affected workers' own industry. Such within-industry local economic shocks lead to a more pessimistic outlook regarding perceptions of financial circumstances and changes in redistributive preferences. The results suggest that a more detailed examination of spatial and social proximity to economic shocks improves our understanding of how local economic decline leads to economic precariousness and shapes perceptions and political attitudes.
Keywords: restructuring, local economy, industry, political change