Scotland’s two constitutional questions have emerged around two distinct, cross-cutting value cleavages. Research shows that voting in the 2014 Scottish independence referendum was largely driven by economic left-right values, but only loosely associated with libertarian-authoritarian ones; whilst the opposite has been shown with regards to value orientations in the 2016 Brexit referendum. In this paper I investigate how this has since changed. Using a longitudinal mediation model on 25 waves of BESIP data (2014-2023), I show how two dormant electoral faultlines, libertarian-authoritarian values in the case of independence and left-right values in the case of Brexit, were activated as positions on the two constitutional questions have become increasingly aligned. As a result, both independence and Brexit positions are now driven by an interaction of the economic and cultural value cleavages in Scotland, with voters on the libertarian-left more likely to support independence and oppose Brexit, and voters on the authoritarian-right to oppose independence and favour of Brexit.

These findings make some important contributions to two fields of study. First, they engage with literature on changing electoral cleavages and alignments by shedding light on the mechanisms through which socio-demographic and value differences can gain electoral significance when the issues to which they are associated rise in salience. Second, the Scottish case lends itself to comparisons with other separatist regions and nations where an independence movement largely driven by left-right values either cross-cuts or aligns with the question of EU integration - such as Wales, Northern Ireland, Catalonia, Flanders and Corsica.