Panel: Bureaucratic Politics in Comparative Perspective – Regulatory Failures in Disaster-Prone Areas: How Incumbency Affects Bureaucratic Enforcement in Urban Infrastructure
P10-S260-3
Presented by: Tuğba Bozçağa
Theories and empirical evidence on bureaucracy suggest that prolonged political incumbency can undermine bureaucratic autonomy, as leaders often prioritize personal or political gains over institutional rules and regulations. In this study, I examine the impact of long incumbency on urban infrastructure and disaster outcomes by employing a regression discontinuity design, using municipal-level data from Turkey on close elections between mayors who serve multiple terms and those who serve only a single term. To estimate the impact on regulatory enforcement, I use a comprehensive dataset of building permits, which includes information on construction and occupancy permits issued for all types of construction projects. I also present an analysis that examines whether more lenient regulatory enforcement correlates with severe disaster impacts, with a specific focus on the consequences of the 2023 earthquake. I complement the analyses with interviews that focus on the mechanisms by exploring the negative impact of prolonged incumbency on bureaucratic autonomy in enforcing relevant rules and regulations.
Keywords: urban politics, local politics, bureaucracy, regulation.