[EU_SIA]. Understanding shifts in EU support: Panel data evidence from Spain (2017–2024)
P10-S254-2
Presented by: Roberto Pannico
Since the end of permissive consensus, public attitudes toward the European Union have become increasingly central to political and electoral behaviour, both at national and EU levels. While extensive research has focused on individual-level determinants of between-person variation in EU opinions, considerably less is understood about the dynamics of within-individual change. In other words, while we know much about why individuals differ in their views on the EU, we know far less about how personal experiences and societal changes influence shifts in these views over time. The paper addresses this gap by relying on data from the last eight waves (2017-2024) of a 16-wave yearly panel survey conducted in Spain. This longitudinal dataset tracks individual attitudes toward various aspects of the EU (output evaluations, institutional trust, and integration preferences), alongside respondents' economic conditions, cultural predispositions and ideological preferences. The panel structure of the data allows us to explore how individual changes in status and political attitudes (differently) relate to shifts in different dimensions of EU support while automatically ruling out the effect of time-constant confounders. Additionally, the concurrent rise of radical-right political actors in Spain provides a compelling context to examine how Eurosceptic parties mobilize cultural and economic grievances against the EU. This study offers valuable insights at a critical juncture when shifts in voter preferences are reshaping the political landscape at the EU level.
Keywords: European Union, Attitude changes, Panel Data, Survey, Radical Right