Close to Home: Local Politicians and Turnout
P10-S248-2
Presented by: Edoardo Alberto Viganò
A large body of research has shown voters' preference for local politicians across different political settings. While the vote-earning potential of candidates' local traits is well documented in both experimental and observational studies, evidence on whether such traits can mobilise voters and increase turnout remains scarce. Moreover, little is known about whether electing a local candidate affects turnout in subsequent elections. Drawing from the literature on descriptive representation and the winner-loser gap in satisfaction with democracy, I argue that municipalities descriptively represented in parliament may experience higher turnout thanks to a stronger sense of efficacy among voters and more intense campaign efforts by incumbents in their hometowns. In this paper, I leverage an original dataset combining municipality-level election results with detailed data on Italian legislators and candidates from 1948 to 2022. Employing generalised difference-in-differences and matching methods, I investigate the effect of local candidates and geographic representation on turnout. In the period analysed, Italy offers variation in electoral rules, allowing me to examine whether electoral institutions influence the potential effects of localism. Additionally, I complement these aggregate analyses with individual-level election survey data. This study advances our understanding of voter turnout and localism, exploring the broader implications of voters' preference for local politicians and its downstream effects on political participation.
Keywords: turnout, descriptive representation, geographic representation