Autocratic Mobilization: Protest Campaigns and Polarization in Brazil
P9-S219-3
Presented by: Yuko Sato
Civic resistance plays a crucial role in deterring and reversing the process of autocratization. However, protest events can sometimes backfire and deepen divisions among political groups. Notably, protest campaigns are not exclusively used by pro-democratic forces; anti-democratic groups also mobilize their supporters to strengthen their base and deliberately create societal divisions. In such cases, the resulting polarization makes it difficult to restore democratic norms, even after anti-pluralists are no longer in power. What types of protest events are more detrimental to democratic stability than others? To examine the varied effects of protest campaigns, I conducted a conjoint survey experiment in Brazil, a country where the trend of autocratization has recently reversed but remains marked by high levels of polarization. With 1,200 respondents, I evaluate how the messages and nature of protest campaigns can either exacerbate or alleviate the societal divisions created by anti-pluralist leaders. The findings enhance our understanding of the effect of autocratic mobilization on the course of autocratization and democratic stability.
Keywords: Protest Campaign, Autocratic Mobilization, Regime Change, Democratic Reversal, Political Psychology