The audience effect: Leaders’ speeches over decentralization in different contexts
P9-S239-2
Presented by: Alberto de León
Political party leaders have to address different scenarios, each with distinct audiences, and they need support from different groups. As their audience changes, their speeches must adapt. Their speeches are not only based on the traditional left-right scale but also on issues beyond ideological divisions, such as decentralization or devolution. These demands are greater in multilevel countries, where party leaders require support from different territorial audiences. In parliaments, the influence of MPs from high regional identity territories and how leaders manage this presence are essential for the content of their speeches. Their influence focuses on maintaining parliamentary confidence and supporting legislation approvals. Are parliamentary speeches significantly more decentralized than party conference speeches with respect to decentralization? The primary assumption is that political leaders change their speeches on decentralization depending on their audience. To predict party leaders' position on decentralization, I use results from a supervised machine-learning analysis of speeches from the United Kingdom and Spain. I distinguish between the demands placed on party leaders in parliamentary investiture speeches, focused on attracting parliamentary support, and national party conference speeches, focused more on internal divisions. I expect party leaders to take a stronger position on decentralization when addressing MPs from different regions than when presenting to intra-party audiences. These results have implications for studying political leaders' communication strategies in multilevel institutions and countries. The use of quantitative text analysis methods also contributes a novel approach to identifying policy dimensions beyond the left-right scale.
Keywords: speeches-parties-leaders-decentralization-ideology