15:00 - 16:40
P9-S241
Room: 1A.13
Chair/s:
Jacqueline Dombrowski
Discussant/s:
Michael Becher
Relative exposure to trade and group status threat: The political consequences of the China shock in Brazil
P9-S241-1
Presented by: Irene Menéndez González
Irene Menéndez González 1, Erica Owen 2, Daniel Jones 2
1 IE University
2 University of Pittsburgh
How does the changing composition of trade due to the China shock affect election outcomes in emerging economies? While some political economists have argued that the distribution of shocks across race and income shapes electoral outcomes, most of the literature on the political consequences of globalization ignores the compositional effects of trade, and micro-level evidence -- particularly in emerging economies -- remains scant. We assess whether relative differences in exposure to trade across skill and racial lines shape electoral outcomes in Brazil. We argue that the rise of China generates a relative status threat along skill and racial lines. A rise in manufactured imports presents an economic threat to relatively skilled (white) workers who may lose access to well-paying, formal sector jobs. A simultaneous boom in primary exports has benefited relatively less skilled workers (who are also more likely to be non-white). The changing composition of trade creates new winners and losers. We consider how these relative economic pressures generate support for left or far-right parties. To examine this empirically, we link administrative data on individual employees with data on industry level imports and exports. Using variation in industry-specific trade shocks interacted with industry employment shares by group in the local labor market, we generate trade-induced local labor demand shocks by group. We examine how the relative exposure to negative (import) and positive (export) shocks influences support for different parties in presidential elections from 2002 to 2022.
Keywords: Globalization, electoral support, emerging countries

Sponsors