Long-run political change after the Great Recession
P9-S225-1
Presented by: Hanno Hilbig
Can recessions lead to sustain political realignment even after their direct economic effects have subsided? We provide novel evidence on the long-term impact of the Great Recession on U.S. electoral outcomes. We use a difference-in-differences approach, leveraging geographic variation in unemployment shocks. We find that counties more severely affected by the recession experienced a sustained increase in Democratic vote shares, particularly in Congressional elections, with effects persisting through 2022. Investigating potential mechanisms, we find that these electoral shifts are unlikely to be driven by (i) lasting negative economic repercussions, (ii) compositional changes in the affected regions, (iii) supply-side changes in candidate ideology, or (iv) compensatory government spending. Instead, survey evidence on individual attitudes suggests that the Great Recession significantly and persistently lowered expectations for future quality of life, potentially increasing demands for redistribution and benefiting Democrats. Contrary to prior work, our findings imply that (i) adverse economic shocks do not necessarily benefit right-wing populist candidates and (ii) recessions can have lasting political consequences even after their direct economic effects have subsided.
Keywords: Economic voting, Political realignment, Regional inequality, Electoral behavior