13:10 - 14:50
P8-S199
Room: 0A.03
Chair/s:
Peng Peng
Discussant/s:
Francesc Amat
Regime Loyalty During Wartime – Evidence from Nazi Germany under World War II
P8-S199-5
Presented by: Sascha Riaz
Felix Haass 1, Alexander De Juan 2Sascha Riaz 3, Julian Voss 2
1 Humboldt University
2 Osnabrueck University
3 EUI
Maintaining popular support is crucial for dictatorships to sustain power during wartime. The loss of such support can threaten regime survival by fostering domestic resistance, reducing combat motivation, and creating fractures within the elite coalition. What factors shape regime loyalty in autocracies under the pressures of war? Investigating this question presents significant challenges. In dictatorships, reliable data on political attitudes is scarce, particularly regarding sensitive topics like regime loyalty. This project addresses this challenge by leveraging unique data from a historical case: Nazi Germany during World War II. We measure regime loyalty by analyzing wartime obituaries in local newspapers. Historical research has established that obituaries for fallen soldiers constituted one of the few channels of public expression that have long remained relatively free of heavy regime censorship. Some obituaries openly displayed support for the war and loyalty to the regime by invoking Adolf Hitler and celebrating heroism for the Fatherland. In contrast, others avoided such nationalist rhetoric, highlighted the tragedy of death, and departed from the regime’s glorification of the war. We classify and extract precise wordings and references within these obituaries from a corpus of about 1.8 million historical and digitized newspaper pages from North-Rhine Westphalia, Germany's most densely populated region. We geocode locations of funerals and combine these data with city-level measures of citizens' exposure to bombings, losses of community members, and food scarcity. We implement difference-in-difference analyses to investigate how these war experiences have shaped citizens’ attitudes toward the regime.
Keywords: Autocratic politics, war, regime loyalty, machine learning, historical political economy

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