13:10 - 14:50
P8-S209
Room: 1A.04
Chair/s:
Philipp Chapkovski
Discussant/s:
Andres Reiljan
Resisting Autocratization: Pro-democratic Protest and Leaders’ Approval
P8-S209-4
Presented by: Renzo Aurazo Diaz
Renzo Aurazo Diaz 1, Yuko Sato 2, Kyusuke Kikuta 3, Yoshikuni Ono 4
1 Tulane University
2 Democracy Institute, Central European University
3 Institute of Development Economics, Japan External Trade Organization
4 Waseda University
Civic resistance plays a crucial role in countering autocratization. But do pro-democratic protests really halt this process? Although these protests can demonstrate and spread support for democracy, they can also backfire; conservative citizens may feel threatened and thus even more strongly support autocratizing leaders. This study adjudicates these competing possibilities by analyzing the effects of pro-democratic protests on public approval for national leaders. We combine protest event data—covering both pro-democratic and non-pro-democratic protests—with a global survey conducted across 61 countries between 2008 and 2020. By analyzing responses from over 78,000 individuals interviewed immediately before or after the onset of protest events, we find that pro-democratic protests significantly decrease the approval of leaders in general; however, these protests increase the approval of leaders in autocratizing countries. These findings add to the expanding research on resisting autocratization and provide insights for strategies aimed at fostering civic engagement.

Keywords: Autocratization, Pro-democratic protest, Resistance, Executive approval, Difference-in-Difference

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