We are in a climate emergency, but also a state of deep contestation over the action needed to address it. 2024 – the biggest election year in history – saw a swing to the right in many countries, with some stark reversions towards prioritizing the economy over climate, largely due to inflationary pressures building up since 2022.

Scientists agree that achieving radical reductions in carbon emissions is the best policy to prevent climate disaster. They also agree that there are different pathways to achieve it: one could target only some sectors, and/or use different blends of push and pull instruments – e.g. investments, technological innovation, phase-outs/regulatory standards, and/or taxation. Which combination of these policy solutions can convince increasingly right-wing and economically squeezed electorates to support net zero efforts? And how can we effectively deliver such policy solutions to citizens (by picking the most popular instruments and/or emphasizing the most popular ones in our communications)?

The proposed study leverages (and validates) state-of-the-art micro-targeting techniques (typically geared to retail or election campaigns) to address a pressing public policy communication problem. Existing findings show that micro-targeting can yield important persuasion advantages (Endres 2020, Tappin et al 2023). By sequentially running (1) a conjoint survey experiment; and (2) a vignette survey experiment where the micro-targeted texts are assigned via machine-learning, we develop a new micro-targeting technique that exploits the multi-dimensionality of a message via conjoint analysis, and we outline best practices in climate communication and net zero policies that could garner public legitimacy.