Regional occupational upgrading and voting behaviour in Germany
P8-S196-1
Presented by: Gina-Julia Westenberger
The increasing geographical polarization in voting behavior has renewed interest for the structural transformations in Western economies and their role in deepening spatial inequality. While there is much research on the success of right-wing parties in “left behind” regions, analyses of how regional economic conditions affect electoral support for other party families remain rare. Our article thus asks to what extent changes in the regional occupational structure are associated with electoral outcomes, focusing on Germany. Our study uses a 2% random sample of workers registered in the social security system to create a novel indicator capturing long-term change in the quality of the regional employment structure at a fine-grained spatial level of 330 regions. It then combines this indicator with aggregated electoral data from the German federal election in 2017 and tests different hypotheses with geocoded individual-level voting data from the German Socio-Economic Panel. Our results show that both on the aggregate as well as the individual level, long-term regional occupational upgrading is positively associated with a vote choice for the Greens and the conservative Union parties, and negatively associated with a vote for the social democratic SPD. Contrary to our expectations, change in the regional occupational structure appears unrelated to voting for the radical right-wing AfD. Our paper extends the understanding of the socioeconomic foundations of geographic polarization in voting by highlighting how (un)favourable labor market development affects party support beyond populist parties.
Keywords: labor markets, occupational change, voting behavior, spatial inequality, regions