IDENT1 Do Targeted Electoral Promises Bring Votes or Backfire? Insights from a Survey Experiment
P7-S177-3
Presented by: Isabelle Guinaudeau
Parties often target specific groups in their campaigns, but there is limited empirical evidence on whether this strategy effectively increases electoral support. We conducted a survey experiment in Germany (N=3,500) in 2024 using fictional campaign posters to examine how voters respond to promises targeting specific groups, such as parents, pensioners, or rural residents, compared to broad-based pledges benefiting everyone. We argue that targeting conveys information on linkages between parties and specific groups and increases the perceived stakes of the pledge and thereby its visibility among target voters. As a result, parties might anticipate increased electoral support from voters (1) identifying with the targeted group and/or (2) perceiving this group as deserving. However, we find no electoral benefits of targeted promises compared to broad-based ones. Instead, our results reveal a backlash effect among voters outside the group or those who do not view the group as deserving. These findings suggest that targeting might carry more electoral losses than returns.
Keywords: Electoral targeting, Electoral behaviour, Prospective, Survey experiment, Group politics