11:20 - 13:00
P7-S167
Room: -1.A.06
Chair/s:
Despina Alexiadou
Discussant/s:
Alexander Horn
Housing, price shocks, and discontent: Deciphering cost-driven economic voting dynamics in the U.K
P7-S167-2
Presented by: Deniz Tufur
Deniz Tufur
PhD Researcher
This paper explores the dynamics of economic voting in the context of cost-driven economic shocks, focusing specifically on the UK. It argues that traditional metrics, such as income and unemployment, may be insufficient to fully capture the impact of economic conditions on voting behavior. Instead, it emphasizes the importance of disposable income, which accounts for both earnings and expenditures. The paper proposes that this concept is particularly useful for understanding how economic shocks, such as increases in mortgage rates and rental prices, differentially affect various socioeconomic groups and shape their voting behavior. The study suggests that homeowners with mortgages and renters are more likely to punish the incumbent government (e.g., the Conservative Party in the UK) compared to debt-free homeowners when confronted with economic shocks (e.g., increases in mortgage rates), ceteris paribus income. Moreover, mortgage holders residing in more expensive areas tend to penalize the incumbent government more after economic shocks compared to those with mortgages in less affluent areas, ceteris paribus income. Finally, the paper highlights that income disparity may also play an important role in shaping voting behavior within housing classes, although the evidence is mixed. Thus, this paper calls for a more nuanced understanding of economic voting that incorporates wealth and cost-related economic shocks to better analyze voting behavior.
Keywords: economic voting, mortgage, renters, cost-driven

Sponsors