We aim to explain the success of the radical right Swiss People’s Party (SVP) in the 2023 Swiss elections using insights from reference group theory. While existing literature emphasizes the influence of objective and subjective group membership on electoral choice, it often overlooks voters’ sympathy or antipathy toward groups they do not belong to. We argue that this framework is particularly effective in understanding SVP voting.
Like other radical right parties in Europe, the SVP exploits resentment toward outgroups to mobilize support. During the 2023 campaign, the SVP targeted asylum seekers and migrants in a nationwide leaflet campaign and, earlier, launched a campaign against “wokeness,” opposing gender-sensitive language and feminist demands tied to the June 2023 women’s strike.
Using data from the 2023 Swiss Election Study Panel, we measure feelings toward social groups and perceptions of party-group associations in the first panel wave, before the campaign, and party choice in the postelection wave to address endogeneity concerns. We demonstrate that negative feelings toward migrants and feminists significantly shape SVP voting, directly and in interaction with the perceived association of these groups with the left, on top of known determinants like socio-structural factors (e.g., class or rural residency) and issue positions (e.g., migration policy).
This study contributes to understanding radical right voting in Western Europe by highlighting the importance of group-based resentment and perceptions in shaping electoral behavior.