Changing Demands while Demanding Change: a Study of Repression and Demand Escalation
P6-S145-1
Presented by: Jan Rustemeyer
Maximalist protest mobilization can have significant consequences for democratization trajectories and the consolidation of democracy (Chenoweth and Stephan 2011; Celestino and Gleditsch 2013). Recent work explores how state violence affects the likelihood for demand escalation - the process by which initial reformist protests adopt maximalist demands, calling for regime change (Kang, 2023). These first inquiries into the emergence of maximalist protest from ongoing protest mobilization rely on aggregate-level campaign data to assess the effect of repression on demand escalation. Asking How does repression affect the likelihood of demand escalation within a protest episode, this study complements existing work by studying demand escalation on event-level data in authoritarian regimes. Doing so provides a more precise temporal assessment of the link between repression and protests demands, critical for understanding an escalation process over time. Leveraging newly constructed data on maximalist demands per protest event, this paper examines how repression of prior reformist protests affects subsequent demand escalation during a series of protest events within the same city. Initial results highlight how political violence against reformist protest events is not significantly associated with demand escalation at later protests. This would suggest a potentially more nuanced relationship between repression and demand escalation than what previous campaign-level analysis has implied. Given the potential consequences of maximalist protest campaigns, especially in authoritarian regimes, further probing into the temporal sequencing between state action and reformist protest turning maximalist is warranted.
Keywords: Contentious Politics; Political Violence; Protests; Repression; Social Movements