This study examines the relationship between affective polarization, electoral outcomes, and satisfaction with democracy. The rationale for this research stems from a lack of consensus in the academic debate on the implications of affective polarization for democracy, driven by limited empirical evidence and the understudied European multi-party context. The central research question is: 'How does affective polarization influence electoral winners' and losers' satisfaction with democracy?' The main hypothesis is that increased affective polarization amplifies dissatisfaction with democracy among losers and satisfaction among winners. This research utilizes logistic regression analysis with interaction terms across 33 elections in 25 European countries, drawing on individual-level data from 32,340 respondents collected between 2016 and 2021 through the Comparative Study of Electoral Systems (CSES) Module 5. This study expands the scope of previous research by employing cross-national analysis.

The study reveals a significant finding: greater affective polarization leads to a widening gap in satisfaction with democracy between winners and losers. This widening gap was particularly evident in countries like Türkiye, Hungary, Montenegro, Poland, Lithuania, France, Germany, Greece, and the UK. However, the relationship is not uniform across all cases. Notably, a few outliers were observed, where losers expressed higher satisfaction with democracy than winners—reflecting the complex political dynamics in Europe, where coalition-building with ideologically diverse parties sometimes occurs.

These findings contribute to the academic debate by emphasizing the dangers of affective polarization for democratic stability, which is increasingly relevant in light of rising polarization and democratic backslides across European nations.