16:50 - 18:30
P5-S113
Room: 0A.02
Chair/s:
Dan Slater
Discussant/s:
Dan Slater, Francisco Villamil
The Impact of Violent Elections: A Caveat to the Democratization-by-Elections Thesis
P5-S113-4
Presented by: Gudlaug Olafsdottir
Gudlaug Olafsdottir
Uppsala UniversityStockholm University
Under what conditions do multiparty elections promote democratization? This question is pressing given the global decline of democracy, despite many countries’ long experience with multiparty elections. Early optimism about the role of elections in fostering democratic norms and institutions following the third wave of democratization has since been challenged by scholars who argue that elections can also reinforce authoritarian rule. Drawing on insights from the study of electoral violence, I investigate an important caveat to the democratization-by-elections theory by examining whether the association between repeated multiparty elections and democratization depends on whether the elections are peaceful or violent. The findings indicate that while peaceful elections may contribute to greater liberal democracy, violent elections do not. The empirical analysis, moreover, assesses evidence for the mechanisms linking peaceful elections to higher levels of democratization. It provides supportive evidence for intraparty democracy and civil society participation as mediating variables linking elections to democratization, but not for electoral participation. Repeated violent elections, on the other hand, are associated with declining electoral turnout, suggesting that the negative effects of violence compound over time. The findings suggest that democracy promotion must prioritize efforts to constrain electoral violence. They also encourage further research into the causal linkages between violence and stalled democratization, as well as between peaceful elections and democratic progress.
Keywords: Democratization, electoral violence, turnout, intraparty democracy, civil society participation

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