Electoral Accountability and the Impact of Judicial Convictions: How Voters Punish Criminal Politicians
P5-S116-2
Presented by: Sigurd S. Arntzen
How do voters respond to information about the criminal involvement of politicians? Leveraging the random assignment of cases in the Brazilian legal system, we provide causal evidence on how judicial convictions influence electoral outcomes. Exploiting variation in court congestion, we find that candidates convicted before elections receive significantly fewer votes than those with unresolved cases. We also examine whether voters penalize the candidate’s political party and how responses vary by the type of crime committed. In addition, we explore the factors that shape voter punishment of criminal politicians, including political polarization, media coverage, incumbency, and electoral competition. Our findings highlight the critical role of timely information in shaping voter behavior and promoting electoral accountability.
Keywords: accountability, voting behavior, voter response, candidate selection, criminal politicians