15:00 - 16:40
P4-S93
Room: 0A.08
Chair/s:
Ailsa Henderson
Discussant/s:
Zachary Dickson
From Jobs to Votes: How State Job Relocations Boost Electoral Support for Incumbent Parties in a Multiparty System
P4-S93-1
Presented by: Esther Bastholm
Esther BastholmKasper Møller Hansen
University of Copenhagen
Retrospective economic voting argues that political parties receive electoral rewards for positive developments in specific constituencies when they can credibly claim responsibility. Legislators often highlight their contributions to local achievements, such as job creation or attracting investments, to strengthen their electoral support. This behavior is expected to depend on the incentives of the electoral system, with multiparty system serving as a critical case due to its lack of clear lines of responsibility and accountability. This study examines this phenomenon within a multiparty system by analyzing the electoral impact of major job influxes, specifically the relocation of state jobs to local areas, on the electoral performance of the party involved. Using a difference-in-difference design, we estimate that the incumbent prime minister’s party gains approximately 0.43 percentage points more in districts that benefit from state job relocations compared to those that do not. These findings are robust across alternative specifications and demonstrate strong parallel trends. Additionally, we apply propensity score matching to further validate the results. Our findings contribute to understanding how localized economic benefits influence voter behavior in multiparty systems and highlight the extent to which parties can leverage on these developments to secure electoral gains.
Keywords: voting behavior, economic voting, multiparty, retrospective voting, accountability

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