The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) sought to increase US investments in green technologies and de-risk that supply chain from China by giving tax credits to products made with critical minerals and battery components produced in countries with whom the United States has a free trade agreement (FTA). We ask whether the IRA has such effects and how this affects countries that are rich in critical minerals. Do they have to choose between the U.S. and China? Or does the geopolitical competition strengthen their bargaining positions? Mineral rich countries increasingly adopt industrial policies to move up the value chain. We have created a large database of investments in the battery supply chain. Our initial results (using a diff-in-diff and event studies) show that since the IRA has taken effect, investments in countries that have an FTA with the U.S. have indeed increased significantly. We do not find this effect for geopolitical allies of the U.S. who do not have an FTA. This distinguishes policy incentives from more diffuse geopolitical incentives. The investment effect is mostly driven by increased investments from geopolitical allies of the United States rather than Chinese investments. However, there is no evidence that the Chinese are withdrawing their investments from mineral rich countries. This suggests that, at this moment, mineral rich countries that have an FTA with the United States can indeed play both sides and we find some evidence that these countries are successful in attracting investment in manufacturing up the value chain.