A Tale of Three Crises: Quasi-Experimental Evidence on the Relationship between Crisis Management Strategies and EU Trust
P3-S69-4
Presented by: Rubén Ruiz-Rufino
During the last decades, the European Union has been confronted with various economic and political crises. But how is citizens’ trust in the EU affected by crisis management strategies in the context of a supranational economic union? This paper uses quasi-experimental evidence to compare the political consequences of different European crisis responses during three economic crises: first, the implementation of financial bailouts during the 2010 sovereign debt crisis; second, the adoption of the NextGenerationEU during the 2020 Covid19 crisis; and third, the decision of the ECB to raise interest rates during the 2022/2023 inflation crisis triggered by the invasion of Ukraine. Based on an unexpected event during survey design (UESD) in three waves of the Eurobarometer (EB), we model the effects of the announcements of different crisis responses on citizens’ trust in different EU institutions. We show that when the EU adopted a strategy of financial assistance tied to strong policy conditionality in 2010, this decision was accompanied by a significant decrease in EU trust. In 2020, when the European crisis response was based on a flexible economic recovery packages where national preferences could be reconciled with EU priorities, EU trust significantly increased. In 2022/23, when crisis management took place through fiscal policy instruments implemented by the European Central Bank, we find a positive, although not robust, effect on EU trust.
Keywords: European Union; Trust; Crisis Management; Quasi-Experimental