13:10 - 14:50
P3-S68
Room: 0A.08
Chair/s:
Fred Paxton
Discussant/s:
Piotr Zagórski
Inequality and Populism: How Relative Status Decline Fuels Support for the Populist Right
P3-S68-4
Presented by: Zach Dickson
Zach Dickson 1, Sara Hobolt 1
1 London School of Economics
2 London School of Economics
The rise of rightwing populism is a defining feature of contemporary politics. Whereas cultural arguments emphasize rapid demographic change, economic arguments instead point to labor market shocks and economic precarity. Crucial to both explanations, we argue, are feelings of relative status loss and perceived inequality that fuel resentment and support for parties and politicians who promise to protect the interests of aggrieved populations. We test this argument in the United Kingdom by examining the effects of wealth inequality---proxied by housing values---on support for the UK Independence Party (UKIP). We assemble a novel dataset that includes the universe of house price transactions since 1995, and leverage deep learning methods to estimate the dynamic value of every residential property in the nation. After using the estimates to construct a small-area geographic measure of housing inequality, we show that areas with higher levels of inequality are more likely to report voting for populist right parties in the British Election Panel Study and are more likely to vote for UKIP in local elections. We then leverage exogenous variation in housing transactions generated by a Stamp Duty Tax holiday for the top tax rate paid for new properties to estimate the causal effect of housing inequality on support for UKIP using an instrumental variables framework. Across several analyses, our results demonstrate that housing inequality drives support for UKIP, and that the effect is moderated by feelings of relative status loss. These findings have important implications for our understanding of support for rightwing populism.
Keywords: Populism, voting behavior, inequality, social status, Britain

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