13:10 - 14:50
P3-S58
Room: -1.A.05
Chair/s:
Max Bradley
Discussant/s:
Sam Houskeeper
Extinguishing the flames: local electoral dynamics of wildfires
P3-S58-3
Presented by: Berta Caihuelas Navajas
Nadal Perales OliverBerta Caihuelas NavajasAlvaro San Roman del PozueloJose Maycas SardiJosep Serrano SerratMaria Rubio CabañezPatricia Lorente Labrado
Universidad Carlos III de Madrid
Despite extensive research on the electoral consequences of natural disasters such as hurricanes, storms, and wildfires, little is known about how the economic characteristics of affected areas and incumbents' actions shape residents' voting behavior. This paper addresses the puzzle of why prior studies, holding disaster relief policies constant, observe such volatility in electoral outcomes—from punishing or rewarding incumbents to supporting far-right parties or climate-change policies. We argue that citizens’ electoral responses depend on the political and economic context of the affected areas. Specifically, wildfires can create local opportunities in economically deprived areas when regulatory constraints on previously unproductive land are lifted, enabling more profitable activities. Using wildfires in Spain as a case study, we examine how incumbents’ ability to convert devastated agricultural and forest land into more lucrative land use influences voting patterns. Drawing on high-resolution data (1 km²) on wildfire severity, timing, and land characteristics, we analyze census-tract electoral outcomes from 2000 to 2024. Employing panel data with census-tract and year fixed effects, we implement an instrumental variable (IV) strategy based on extreme temperatures and vegetation types to address endogeneity. This approach isolates the causal impact of wildfire severity on electoral outcomes, shedding light on the interplay between natural disasters, economic context, and voting behavior. These findings contribute to a nuanced understanding of climate disasters, while the immediate relief response is important, the ability to restructure the municipalities´ land can create or alleviate pre-existing grievances.
Keywords: climate change, electoral dynamics, wildfires, local context, grid-cell data

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