13:10 - 14:50
P3-S71
Room: 1A.02
Chair/s:
Anne Rasmussen
Discussant/s:
Edoardo Alberto Viganò
Canary In The Coal Mine: Hostile elite political communication as a predictor for democratic deconsolidation?
P3-S71-3
Presented by: Myrte van der Zwet
Myrte van der Zwet 1, Anna Kern 1, Alessandro Nai 2
1 Ghent University
2 University of Amsterdam
Scholars have decried the decline of democracy in several supposed consolidated democracies, such as Hungary and Poland. Democratic deconsolidation is often explored through rising anti-democratic attitudes among citizens. The literature on this topic shows that citizens tend to take cues from political elites expressing anti-democratic sentiments, highlighting the necessity to center communication by political elites as a possible driver of democratic deconsolidation. Even in democracies that appear stable, political elite communication may not always adhere to democratic ideals. We argue that hostile rhetoric of political elites should not be dismissed as mere words, as it may serve as a canary in the coal mine for democratic decline. Using variables from the V-Dem dataset and the Negative Campaigning Comparative Expert Survey (NEGex), we investigate the predictive value of hostile rhetoric by political elites for democratic decline. Preliminary results show that drops in liberal democracy scores are regularly preceded by an increase in hostile rhetoric several years before. By mapping the relationship between hostile rhetoric and democratic deconsolidation across different political contexts - and possibly exploring showing time frames after which an increase in hostile rhetoric is followed by democratic decline - we contribute to a better understanding of the mechanisms leading to democratic erosion, so early warning signs can be perceived as such.
Keywords: democratic deconsolidation, liberal democracy, political communication, political elites, hostile rhetoric 

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