Does Chinese economic cooperation enhance the durability of authoritarian regimes?
P3-S67-1
Presented by: Rodrigo Moura
This paper explores the impact of Chinese loans and foreign direct investment (FDI) on autocratic survival, emphasizing the role of economic fungibility. Drawing on selectorate theory, I argue that Chinese loans, due to their fungible nature and low policy conditionality, allow autocrats to reallocate resources towards patronage, thereby consolidating their grip on power. In contrast, Chinese FDI, driven by profit motives, offers limited fungibility and weaker effects on authoritarian durability. Using country-year and leader-year panel data and hazard models, I find that higher levels of Chinese loans significantly reduce the risk of irregular leader exits and regime failures, while Chinese FDI shows a more nuanced relationship. These findings contribute to the literature on authoritarian durability by highlighting the conditional effects of external economic cooperation and providing new insights into China's growing influence in the developing world.
Keywords: China, FDI, loans, Global South, authoritarian durability