Climate Change and Political Entry: Evidence from Brazilian Municipal Elections
P3-S58-1
Presented by: António Valentim
Does climate change affect who runs for office, and how? As extreme weather events intensify, they create social and economic challenges that likely impact political candidacy. We build on existing research on mass political participation and the political economy of candidate entry and test how extreme weather events affect decisions to pursue a political career. Using a novel dataset of flooding events and mayoral candidates in Brazil (2000-2020), we employ a difference-in-differences design to assess the impact of floods on the demographic composition of the mayoral candidate pool. We find that floods reduce the education level and age of candidates. Using data on federal transfers, corruption audits, surveys, and elite
interviews, we show the effects on education can be driven by rent-seeking and outside options, whilst mobilization and recruitment patterns drive the age effects. By shedding light on the effects of climate change on candidate selection, this study highlights how climate change can paradoxically increase the representation of underrepresented groups in politics.
interviews, we show the effects on education can be driven by rent-seeking and outside options, whilst mobilization and recruitment patterns drive the age effects. By shedding light on the effects of climate change on candidate selection, this study highlights how climate change can paradoxically increase the representation of underrepresented groups in politics.
Keywords: climate change, political entry, Brazil, political elites, difference-in-differences