13:10 - 14:50
P3-S59
Room: -1.A.06
Chair/s:
Vicente Valentim
Discussant/s:
Jon H. Fiva, Milan Svolik
Machines of State: Electoral Manipulation under Occupation
P3-S59-1
Presented by: Christopher Carter, Daniel Gingerich
Christopher CarterDaniel Gingerich
University of Virginia

How do occupying governments ensure their enduring control over territory? One common—though understudied—option has been the plebiscite, an institution that allows individuals residing in conquered territories to decide through a vote whether they want to continue living under the occupier or revert to the pre-occupation status quo. This use of the plebiscite has been common over the past 150 years, having been used (or promised) by German occupiers of Danish Northern Schleswig and Polish/Czech Upper Silesia; Chilean occupiers of Peruvian Tacna; and Russian occupiers in Crimea and Donbas. The use of a referendum presents a clear potential benefit for occupiers: it can provide a popular legitimation for annexation. This matters not only for domestic perceptions of the legitimacy of occupier rule but also for international audiences. Yet, plebiscites also carry a risk: if the occupier loses, it may be deprived of a claim to legitimate control over the occupied territory. Drawing on a novel quantitative analysis of individual-level plebiscite records from Chilean-occupied Tacna in the 1920s, we explore how governments minimize the risk of a failed plebiscite. We highlight the central role of the firm, developing and testing a theoretical framework that reveals a key prediction: occupiers often conduct electoral fraud through private companies.
Keywords: electoral fraud, foreign occupation, historical political economy, Latin American politics, democracy

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