Production Workers and Left Electoral Support: The Selective Decline of Class Voting in Contemporary Western Europe (2000-2023)
P2-S39-4
Presented by: Federico Trastulli
Over the decades, numerous scholarly contributions have attested to a historical decline in the association between working-class voters and electoral support for left parties in Western Europe. Did this enduring process extend into the new millennium? This paper seeks answers by leveraging representative survey data from multiple waves of the European Social Survey (ESS), covering 19 Western European countries in 2000-2023. Its aim is twofold: describing contemporary patterns of working-class voting in contemporary Western Europe, and assessing their determinants. First, by operationalising the working class through Oesch’s scheme of labour market location, data shows that whilst the electoral support of the working class did not significantly decline in the aggregate, ‘traditional’ production workers (e.g., in factories) kept progressively abandoning the left over the past two-and-a-half decades. Second, moving from this finding, the paper tests relevant hypotheses concerning individuals’ sociodemographics and attitudes, party supply, descriptive representation, and deunionisation in multilevel analyses. Overall, the association between production workers and electoral support for the left is reinforced in those contexts where this social group is especially lower-educated, straight, and urban, and with stronger trade unions. When replicating the analyses by specifically including only those countries in which production workers’ vote for class-bloc parties has declined, the fundamental role of party supply emerges. In particular, production workers are significantly less likely to vote for left parties if, compared to themselves, these formations are more economically right-wing, as well as when cultural issues (e.g., immigration, crime, etc.) are more polarised within national party systems.
Keywords: Working class, class voting, left parties, survey data, contemporary Western Europe