Does the entry of radical-right parties into parliament influence levels of affective polarization? While prior research highlights the ideological and positional effects of radical-right parties’ institutional success (Bischof and Wagner 2019), their potential influence on affective dynamics among voters remains theoretically underdeveloped and empirically underexplored. We hypothesize that the entry of a radical right party produces distinct short- and long-term effects on partisans throughout the system: supporters of the new radical party experience legitimization effects, while opposing voters display a temporary unity effect, fostering greater sympathy among themselves.
Using interrupted time-series analysis and synthetic control methods, we analyze time-series cross-sectional data from Germany. Our study focuses on the Alternative for Germany (AfD) entry into the Bundestag in 2017 and earlier entries into regional parliaments. We also investigate the Green Party’s entry into the Bundestag in 1983 for further robustness.
The findings indicate that entry into parliament led AfD voters to increase their sympathy towards other parties, perhaps reflecting magnanimous reactions to institutional recognition. Non-AfD voters at most maintained their low sympathy towards the party, but often experience a short-term unity effect, with increased affect towards each other. While the results are largely consistent between the regional and national cases, some differences are present, while the entry of the Greens in 1983 had no clear impact.
This study advances the understanding of how radical-right electoral success can shape affective polarization and impact social harmony in societies.