Don't be Fueled: How decarbonization threatens political stability in today's petrostates
P2-S34-3
Presented by: Yaron Weissberg
Because oil and gas are often associated with conflict, many observers expect the transition away from fossil fuels to yield peaceful benefits. However, there are also dangers lurking on the horizon, especially relating to the political stability of major oil and gas producing countries who rely on fossil fuel rents to maintain social order and legitimate their rule. Without the continued inflow of fossil fuel revenues, government spending has to be cut which could lead to protests, increased repression and even state collapse. To test whether these fears are legitimate, this paper tests the level of political violence of petrostates during previous periods of decline. Although some troubling signs exist at the national level, I argue that we need to focus on the sub-national level in order to grasp the true dangers. Using new data on oil and gas wealth and the geo-location of oil fields and pipelines, the analysis is able to delve deeper into the different mechanisms and explanations linking lower fossil fuel rents to political instability. The results show that petrostates overall face an increased level of civil conflict during times of decline. This increased risk of conflict takes places outside of the main oil-producing areas which have so far been at the focal point of the oil-conflict nexus.
Keywords: Conflict, Energy Transition, Petrostates, Decline.