Borders, Ballots, and Belonging:
From Protest to Parliament: Anti-Government Mobilization and Lebanon's New Opposition
P1-S7-5
Presented by: Daniel Tavana
In the absence of regime change, protest movements persistently struggle to channel anti-government, revolutionary opposition into support for alternative movements, parties, and candidates in subsequent national elections. A core finding in the contentious politics literature traces this difficulty to the polarization and fragmentation that emerges in revolutionary moments. Less is known, however, about cases where opposition movements overcome these challenges and mount successful electoral challenges to incumbent regimes. This paper explores the sources of this success in Lebanon, where the 2019 October Uprising resulted in the emergence of new, electorally successful opposition movements with roots in the protests themselves. Using a mixed-methods approach, we show how the uprising shaped subsequent patterns of political participation and electoral behavior in the 2022 legislative election. A difference-in-differences design shows that support for opposition-aligned lists doubled and support for incumbent candidates decreased by 50% in municipalities that experienced at least one protest. Further statistical tests and elite interviews suggest that these dynamics were driven by the adoption of explicitly anti-sectarian messaging and abstention from more violent, disruptive tactics. These findings illuminate how identity-based movements can successfully transition from street politics to electoral participation, offering insights into pathways for political change in deeply divided societies.
Keywords: Elections; protests; quantitative; political behavior