The Globalization Backlash in Rural Areas: Price Shocks, Far Right Support, and the Limits of Agricultural Subsidies
P1-S16-3
Presented by: Giorgio Malet
In recent years, the world has witnessed a rising backlash against globalization, yet much remains unknown about the policy responses to this phenomenon. This paper investigates how economic volatility influences political behavior in rural areas and examines whether redistributive policies can mitigate its effects. Grounded in theories of economic insecurity and political backlash, we argue that sharp declines in the prices of locally produced agricultural goods significantly increase the likelihood of rural communes voting for far-right parties, reflecting a shift toward protectionist preferences. We test this hypothesis in France (2008–2024) using a shift-share instrument based on global price trends and local production patterns to identify the causal effect of price volatility. The study further explores the role of the European Union’s Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) in moderating these dynamics. By integrating cantonal voting data, variation in CAP subsidies, an original survey of 1,542 farmers matched with administrative records, and qualitative interviews, we find that CAP funding fails to alleviate the economic insecurity stemming from price fluctuations. This research contributes to debates on the political consequences of globalization by offering novel insights into how redistributive policies might address the socioeconomic roots of political extremism. It underscores the importance of designing effective interventions to counter the globalization backlash and its far-reaching political implications.
Keywords: globalization backlash, far right support, price volatility, farmers, CAP