Understanding the return of forcibly displaced populations requires examining not only the factors that motivate return but also those that drive continued displacement. This study investigates the return behavior of Syrian refugees in Lebanon using a five-year longitudinal panel study of 3,000 individuals and a survey experiment. It explores how evolving conditions in Syria, including the fall of the Assad regime, and regional developments, such as the Israeli invasion of Lebanon, have influenced patterns of return. The research emphasizes the importance of understanding how perceptions of safety, stability, governance, and other contextual factors shape decisions about return or continued displacement. By addressing these factors, this longitudinal approach reveals how shifting political contexts and identity-based concerns interact to shape displacement outcomes, contributing to broader debates about refugee return in conflict-affected regions.