Chaos at the Polls: How Electoral Disruptions Affect Voter Perceptions of Integrity and Democratic Satisfaction
P1-S17-2
Presented by: Andreas Goldberg
The extant literature has found a positive relationship between electoral integrity (perceptions) and satisfaction with democracy. Most previous research has relied on citizens’ subjective perceptions of electoral fraud and other factors affecting electoral integrity, as measured in large-scale cross-sectional data. In contrast, the influence of more direct experiences of electoral fraud and disruption is less clear. This study leverages on the electoral disruptions that occurred during the 2021 German federal elections in Berlin to examine whether individuals' personal experiences of electoral irregularities exert an influence on their perceptions of electoral integrity and satisfaction with democratic processes. Voters in Berlin experienced a range of disruptions to the electoral process, including prolonged queues, missing ballot papers and discrepancies in closing times. The irregularities were of such a significant nature that the Federal Constitutional Court ordered a repetition of the elections in a considerable number of districts. The setting of the 2021 elections serves as a quasi-natural experiment, allowing for a comparison between citizens residing in Berlin and in the remaining 15 German states, where these disruptions did not occur. A difference-in-differences analysis is conducted using originally collected pre- and post-election survey data to compare changes in both integrity perceptions and satisfaction with democracy before and after the (chaotic) election. The survey data include a comprehensive seven-item battery of integrity perceptions, covering the administrative conduct of the elections. This allows for a detailed analysis of the specific aspects affected during the electoral process.
Keywords: electoral integrity, satisfaction with democracy, quasi-experiment, difference-in-differences