Is Jesus Green? The Expansion of Evangelical Christianity and the Appeal of Pro-Climate Candidacies in Brazil (PECEGS)
P1-S6-2
Presented by: Victor Araújo Silva
Conventional wisdom suggests that Christian evangelicals tend to prioritize social and moral issues over environmental concerns, which can limit their support for green candidates. Drawing on cross-country survey data indicating that Christian evangelicals are as likely as other citizens to recognize climate change as a real threat, we argue that the growth of evangelical Christianity in the Global South may create a bias in favor of pro-climate candidates. In contexts characterized by vulnerability and low state capacity, evangelical churches often function as substitutes for the state by absorbing the costs of climate change and providing support for low-income voters affected by climate-related events. Consequently, Christian evangelicals will likely combine their views on moral issues with a strategic, pragmatic, pro-climate orientation in elections, thus increasing the appeal of pro-climate candidacies. We test these claims with an exogenous expansion of evangelical churches driven by an as-if-random implementation of a large-scale electrification scheme across Brazilian states. Estimates from a difference-in-differences and a regression discontinuity design reveal that this discontinuous growth of evangelical Christianity causes more candidates to run in elections with pro-climate parties. Crucially, being associated with a pro-climate party enhances candidates' chances of securing a position in the local council (Câmara dos Vereadores). These findings illuminate the discussion on the challenges faced by Green parties in broadening their electoral base across emerging democracies. Evidence from Brazil suggests that the expansion of evangelical Christianity does not seem to be the main factor preventing Green parties from succeeding in the Global South.
Keywords: Christian evangelicals; climate change; green parties; pro-climate candidates; Brazil