09:30 - 11:10
P1-S2
Room: -1.A.02
Chair/s:
Matthias Haslberger
Discussant/s:
Zack Grant
The Candidate Factory: Technological Change and Political Supply
P1-S2-1
Presented by: Paolo Agnolin
Paolo Agnolin
Bocconi University
The transition from industrial to post-industrial societies is reshaping political landscapes, with studies documenting a decline in working-class representation. This paper provides a structural explanation for the changing composition of political elites, focusing on the role of technological advancements such as automation and robotization. I argue that the distributional effects of automation play a key role in shaping political representation. Specifically, I theorize that automation alters the distribution of economic resources and opportunities across occupations, influencing who runs for office. I propose that those most negatively affected by automation, particularly individuals from working-class or automatable backgrounds, are increasingly underrepresented among political candidates. This research examines how material changes impact political candidacy, using data on representatives to state legislatures in the US from 1997 to 2018, as well as the entire population of candidates for lower-level offices (such as city councils, school boards, and city supervisors) in California between 1995 and 2021. Candidates are classified by their occupational backgrounds, and these data are linked to district-level information, including measures of exposure to automation and robotization. The findings reveal that in areas with higher exposure to automation, there is a notable decline in candidates from occupations most affected by robotization. This research contributes to a deeper understanding of the structural factors shaping the supply of political candidates and their implications for representation and policy outcomes.
Keywords: comparative politics, political economy, automation, representation, political inequality

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