15:30 - 17:45
Friday-Panel
Chair/s:
Thomas Fleming
Discussant/s:
Alessandro Nai
Meeting Room F

Thomas Fleming
How Does Constituency-Level Partisan Dealignment Affect Parliamentary Behaviour?

Paul Bose
Political (self-)selection and competition: Evidence from U.S. Congressional elections

Corinna Kroeber, Jan Berz
Walking the line: Electoral cycles and the shift in legislative priorities among German Parliamentarians

Monika Mühlböck, Manuel Schwaninger
Risk Preferences and Outcome Bias in the Delegation Process

Lucia Motolinia
Cultivating a Personal Vote can Increase Legislative Cohesion: Evidence from Clientelistic Parties in Mexico
Risk Preferences and Outcome Bias in the Delegation Process
Marc Debus 1, 2, Monika Mühlböck 1, 2, Manuel Schwaninger 2
1 University of Mannheim
2 Mannheim Centre for European Social Research (MZES)

As demonstrated by the COVID-19 pandemic, many political decisions involve a high level of uncertainty. Policy outcomes are thus subject to chance. However, when evaluating the past performance of politicians, voters tend to focus on policy outcomes rather than on the political decisions and the circumstances under which they were taken, leading to less than optimal voting decisions. In this study, we examine this so-called outcome bias and its effect on the delegation process. In an online experiment, subjects assigned the role of a politician decide how much to invest in a risky policy, whereas subjects assigned the role of a voter decide whether to re-elect the politicians based on the politicians’ decision and the outcome. The treatments, which vary potential reward and risk of the policy, allow us to derive causally whether the probability of success affects (I) voters’ preferences for political delegates or trustees in decisions taken under uncertainty, (II) the magnitude of voters’ outcome bias, and (III) politicians’ responsiveness to voters’ risk preferences and biases. Considering the outcome bias, in some instances it may be better for politicians to disregard voters’ risk preferences and focus on the sheer probability of policy success. In this manner, the study provides novel insights into the role of risk and risk preferences in representative democracies.