13:15 - 15:30
Friday-Panel
Chair/s:
Mert Moral
Discussant/s:
Hanno Hilbig
Meeting Room A

Mert Moral
Vanishing Swing Voters? On the Effect of Political Polarization on Electoral Volatility

Marius Saeltzer, Mike Cowburn
Primary Roots of Partisan Polarization: The Effects of Primaries on Intra-Campaign Positional Shifts in Congressional Elections

Andreas Goldberg, Jonas Lefevere
Does polarization moderate the electoral impact of issue positions and competence? A comparative study on the 2019 EP elections

Davide Morisi
Biased but moderate voters: How information depolarizes political attitudes
Vanishing Swing Voters? On the Effect of Political Polarization on Electoral Volatility
Mert Moral
Sabanc? University

Although previous studies provide us with important insights about the attitudinal consequences of political polarization, our understanding of its effects on electoral behavior and party competition, especially from a comparative perspective, is quite limited. This study seeks to answer a question largely overlooked in previous literature: Do high and increasing party and electoral polarization decrease electoral volatility? Coupling an original dataset with official election outcomes, this study seeks to answer whether party and electoral polarization interactively affect electoral behavior. Employing aggregated survey data on respondents' own ideological positions and their perceptions about party positions in 162 elections from 19 established democracies, the empirical analyses assess both the short- and long-term effects of party and citizen polarization on electoral volatility. The findings suggest that high and increasing party polarization decreases electoral volatility, and such effect is more pronounced when electoral polarization is also high. Distinguishing the short- and long-term effects of political polarization on voting behavior, this study concludes that polarized ideological attitudes of electorates in established democracies counterbalance the long-suggested decrease in their partisan loyalties toward mainstream parties. Political polarization has thus more important consequences for democratic theory than we often think of.